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Analysis: Republicans Have A Strong Shot At Holding the House

Rod Thomson

While the media is gaga over the possibility of a blue wave and polls at the macro level all seem to indicate that, there are three points the national media is largely ignoring that could cut deeply into that wave.

First is a poll done by WAPi for the Club for Growth, which is a conservative group but runs polls to determine where to place its money and how to message in the races in which it is investing. It’s not puff pollery for public consumption. WPAi conducted the poll of only the people who really matter — 1,000 likely voters in 41 competitive House districts, as reported by Kimberly Strassel in the Wall Street Journal.

And indeed, at the macro level the poll is still bad. President Trump’s negative approval rating in these districts is particularly high among women (57%), independents (58%) and suburban voters (52%). The scariest number is the 12-point enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans calling themselves “very interested” in this election. In the suburbs, the gap doubles to 24 points. Those are all the numbers the media will generally report from polls.

But here are the bright spots for Republicans in those 41 swing districts. And they are meaningful.

Republicans actually hold a 3-point lead on the generic ballot in those districts, meaning that the large advantage Democrats have nationally is being ballooned by deep blue districts and/or deep red districts. But in the districts that will decide control of the House, Republicans have a good chance of winning — if they get their voters to the polls and message rightly.

An even bigger opportunity for Republicans is that the poll found that 25% of the likely voters who said they would vote Democrat in those districts were still “persuadable” to vote Republican. That goes directly to the message formation in those districts.

On that point, taxes remain a big winner, but not by touting past accomplishments. Republicans need to run on making last year’s tax cuts permanent and force Democrats to answer on the question of whether they will vote to repeal them.

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A couple other areas of messaging are strengths for the GOP in all of those districts. One is highlighting the radically leftist ideas that many Democrats are embracing. The poll found that uncommitted voters reacted strongly against Democrats’ calls to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and strongly in favor of GOP promises to defund “sanctuary” cities and states. In fact, those were the top two messages for swing suburban voters, who have seen urban violence invading their neighborhoods. Those both propel the base and move the independents. The third topic for suburban voters? Repeal ObamaCare. This should be home-run stuff.

The second good sign for Republicans and a bit of an unknown is the unexpected trend of blacks warming to Trump.

While the level of support varies greatly poll to poll, surveys from Rasmussen polls to NAACP polls reveal a glaringly consistent trend: Black support for President Trump has doubled or more than doubled since the November 2016 election. Considering the non-stop charges of racism leveled at the President and his administration, along with Trump’s own missteps (initial response to Charlottesville) this is a fairly astonishing development.

The causes seem to be two-fold. One, the economic improvement for blacks since Trump’s election is tangible in a way that no race-based media blitz can obscure. Record levels of high black employment and low black unemployment, combined with rising incomes and opportunities are felt and noticed. Second, the hope and change of Barack Obama turned into little more than race-stoking. No healing, no moving forward, no hope — plus a terrible economy. The disappointment at Obama’s presidency in the black community is a story repeated over and over.

This has the potential to be monumental, even if it only plays out by a few percentage points at the November ballot box.

The third point of optimism for Republicans was touched on in the first: the Democrats’ lurch toward open socialism in multiple candidates.

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This is well-known in the case of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the New York Democrat who beat a long-time incumbent in the primary, but it is also going on in other candidates this cycle after Sen. Bernie Sanders’ unexpectedly strong showing in the 2016 Democratic primary. Perhaps the biggest, however, is the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Florida, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.

Gillum has many drawbacks, from presiding over Tallahassee becoming the most dangerous city in Florida to an FBI investigation of corruption at City Hall. But the biggest negatives for voters are his radical stances on socialism, ratcheting up the state corporate tax that Gov. Rick Scott has been decreasing (helping create the hottest state economy in the nation) abolishing ICE, legalizing recreational pot, increasing the minimum wage to $15 per hour and more.

While Gillum is a good fit for Ocasio-Cortez’s very liberal New York Congressional district, he’s probably not for a right-of-center state. This “is giving Democrats heartburn,” according to a Florida newspaper that polled several Democratic candidates. Most of them, including Sen. Bill Nelson, are distancing themselves from Gillum.

The problem for these Democrats, and opportunity for Republicans, is that the media loves Gillum, Ocasio-Cortez and others and national party leaders have been quickly embracing their ideas. This is a heavy anchor that can be hung on Democrats in the 41 close House races.

The wild card is the Mueller investigation. But there has been nothing but fog so far, mimicking smoke to imply a fire. But even former Washington Post editor and reporter of Watergate fame Bob Woodward said he looked “very hard” for Russian collusion in his extensive interviews and research for his book “Fear,” but said he could find none. Unless Mueller has an October surprise, this has become a non-issue for voters in the middle, along with Trump’s unpredictability, which has become predictable and baked in for the electorate.

Republicans have a real chance, but they have to have the courage in these close races to go straight to voters with a strong message on taxes and law enforcement issues.

Rod Thomson is an author, TV talking head and former journalist, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act. Rod is co-host of Right Talk America With Julio and Rod on the Salem Radio Network.


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Midterm Wildcard: The Black Vote May Be In Play

Rod Thomson

In all of the hyper focus on Russia, Mueller, Manafort, Cohen, Stormy, Omarosa and the general gusher of hysterical nonsense from the Democrat-Media Complex, there is a quiet little revolution brewing: The first real cracks in the Democratic Party stranglehold on the black vote are coming into view.

We see signs of this with Kanye West, Kim Kardashian and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, with the rocketing rise of Candace Owens and the black involvement in the #WalkAway movement. We also see it, importantly, in the black church, such as a recent White House faith meeting on prison reform hosted by Trump, where Pastor Darrell Scott called him the “most pro-black president I’ve seen in my lifetime.”

But it is coalescing now in some very tangible ways around actual statistics and actions on the ground that are getting hard for Democrats to ignore, and crack the door open for Republicans and Democrats.

Polls are showing positive movement among minorities in President Trump’s approval ratings, even while he is daily being labeled a racist. While Trump won only 8 percent of the black vote in November 2016, the national NAACP’s own polls now show Trump’s approval rating among blacks at 21 percent — nearly three times higher than his election numbers. That doesn’t necessarily mean he would get 21 percent of the black vote, but it does show substantial movement.

Further, Rasmussen polls now have Trump’s approval ratings among blacks at 36 percent. Rasmussen pulls from a broader and less politicized base of respondents and typically is above the poll averages. But what is important is again the movement. One year ago at this time, Trump’s approvals in this same poll were 19 percent.

And we are even seeing breaks in the NAACP itself at the grassroots level. The Manatee County NAACP in Florida is interviewing all local candidates and has supported one Republican over a Democrat and is planning to support more going forward in the general election.

Rodney Jones, President of the Manatee NAACP, said he is a lifelong Democrat, but that he’s fed up with Democrats taking his vote for granted.

“We don’t see Democrats until election time and that’s the truth,” Jones said on an ABC panel Tuesday night. “I live in the neighborhood. I’ve lived there my entire time and we don’t see Democrats until election time because they come for one purpose and one purpose only, to get votes. After the elections, we don’t see any of them.”

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This is not a new sentiment. Frustration with being taken for granted has been growing for some time among black voters. Popular black ESPN commentator Stephen A. Smith said in 2015 that all blacks should vote Republican for one election to send a signal. “I definitely believe that the black vote has been taken for granted.”

Smith said Democrats had successfully painted Republicans as opposed to the interests of black Americans and “we’ve bought it hook line and sinker…vast majorities of black Americans look at the Republican Party as the enemy.” It’s time to make politicians earn the vote of black Americans, he said.

That is what Jones is doing in Florida. He is not running to Republicans, but he is leading his organization to look at issues and choose candidates accordingly. And his group is totally onboard with that. This is a concept that has interesting ramifications because Jones considers himself somewhat conservative on a lot of issues — family, faith, personal responsibility — and he thinks American blacks overall are more so than the hitherto party-line voting suggests.

“We’re not letting Republican or Democrat come into our community and set an agenda for us,” Jones said. “I’m kind of anti-Democratic and Republican…The Democratic Party comes out of the deep south, actually out of the Klan and white supremacy.”

To be clear, Jones is not advocating becoming Republican and he is not at all a fan of Trump, considering him a low-character racist.

But this is part of the point. If American blacks begin thinking independently in a political sense — exactly what Kanye is advocating — they may never be majority Republicans, but they will stop being monolithically Democratic. Issue by issue favors Republicans on many topics.

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Pew Research has noted that blacks and Hispanics who identify as Democrats are far less likely to consider themselves liberal than white Democrats. This reflects what Jones and his NAACP chapter are saying.

Making this more problematic for Democrats and opportunistic for Republicans is that the Democratic Party is definitely moving further left, even sprinting left. It’s not clear at all that 90 percent of blacks will be onboard with the Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez socialism or the intersectional , 72 genders politics of the party elites. In the same way that Democrats are slowing losing the vast center of the country — geographically and politically — they are risking doing the same with the black vote.

American blacks shifting more to issues than to party loyalty would throw Democratic national politics, and probably local politics, into a tailspin. This would not happen overnight. The Democratic death grip has been generational. But a few points per election would be a tectonic shift. It may already under way, as the black vote for the Democratic presidential nominee peaked in 2008, declined in 2012 and plummeted in 2016.

The door is ajar for Republicans, and maybe President Trump.

Rod Thomson is an author, TV talking head and former journalist, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act. Rod is co-host of Right Talk America With Julio and Rod on the Salem Radio Network.


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Leftist Protesters Crash Republican Rally, Create Mayhem

Rod Thomson

The radicalized American left gets more dangerous every day. We are treated daily to outrages against administration appointments in public areas, to attacks on people wearing MAGA hats or Trump shirts, to people taking pickaxes to the Trump Hollywood star to an actress and copycats holding a severed Trump head to virtual calls for violence against any Trump supporters.

A huge GOP rally in Florida over the weekend saw the same dangers. Two years ago, this particular rally on Florida’s West Coast south of Tampa Bay had just a handful of security and police. This year, there were about 30 police officers and private security members — and they were needed.

About 1,200 Republicans showed up to hear 41 candidates, including Gov. Rick Scott and gubernatorial contenders Ron DiSantis and Adam Putnam, plus take part in a straw poll.

It was a lively and positive three-hour event with speeches and apple pies. Literally. There were hundreds of free pies. The mood was energetic and upbeat with Salem Radio broadcasting live at it and a dozen media outlets represented. The candidates moved among the GOP crowd comfortably while a couple hundred protesters waved their signs outside along a busy seven-lane roadway. For two and a half hours, it was just great, red white and blue Americana patriotism.

Then Gov. Rick Scott began speaking and everything broke loose. Leftist extremists had infiltrated the event and been waiting for Scott to speak. The first group stood up and began chanting from the front center of the floor until police could break it up and remove them.

Scott began speaking and two minutes later another group rose and began throwing things toward the stage. Another person jumped on a table and tried to jump the barrier toward the stage. Another group unfurled a banner in the stadium seating. About six times these disruptions happened.

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The angry and violent leftist protesters were taken out, with some resisting police.

No harm was done to any of the protesters by the 1,200 Republicans on the floor of the arena, and police professionally escorted all of them out of the building.

The disruptive attack was orchestrated by a group called Dream Defenders, which transported disrupters from Tampa, St. Pete and Orlando. The self-styled criminal justice reform group issued a press release after the event criticizing Florida’s privatization of prison operations and Gov. Scott personally for taking a campaign donation from the CEO of a private prison operator.

That was their beef. That’s what spun up their dangerous actions.

But it’s hard not to see the driving motivation behind these leftist actions over the weekend, and all the rest going on daily, being visceral hatred of Donald Trump — and of any who dare to support the President of the United States. That means that every Republican event must now pay for considerably increased security and police presence — just like conservative commentators must now do. Democratic events need the same level of security they always have, because Republicans largely are not demonstrators, protesters or wont to disrupt other people’s events.

In a word, civilized.

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This will continue. President Trump will be in Tampa Tuesday night for what promises to be a rip-roaring rally in support of early supporter DiSantis. Of course, the security required for that will be enormously expensive.

That is the current state of the American left. And it’s deteriorating. When the supposed adults of the Democratic Party, such as congressional leaders, egg on such dangerous actors, we can expect much worse eventually.

Rod Thomson is an author, former journalist and current TV talking head, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act. Rod is co-host of Right Talk America With Julio and Rod on the Salem Radio Network.


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Democrats’ “Illegals-First” Policy Is Path For Republicans Keeping The House

Rod Thomson

Despite the public black eye the Trump administration received over following the law and separating families at the border exactly as Obama had done only on a larger scale, one certainty remains that could backfire on Democrats in November:

Americans want the borders secured and controlled and an end to some of the worst policies, such as chain migration, diversity lottery, sanctuary cities and drivers licenses for illegal aliens. They strongly oppose what has become the operative Democratic position: illegals-first.

This is an overall winning issue for Republicans on the merits alone — a secure border is necessary for the proper and safe operations of a free country. We are rightly generous in our asylum laws because we are the safe port for the world. But we should not be generous with liars and lawbreakers sneaking in to the country.

This is a winning issue politically, too. Because it is not hard for Americans to look past the obstructionist media — with a little help — to see that Democrats always side with illegal immigrants over Americans and legal immigrants. Always. Democrats will and do prioritize energy, money and political capital for illegals at the expense of Americans every time. Every. Time. This is, in operation, an illegals-first policy.

This knee-jerk pro-illegal immigrant position materially damages the American working poor and minorities the most — supposedly the groups benefiting from their loyal Democratic patronage. Yet Democrats prioritize illegals anyway. And secondarily, all American taxpayers are also hurt. Who wins? Big business and select Democrats in deep blue areas. This is a terrible dynamic for Democrats and therefore a strong one for Republicans.

Republicans should run hard on border control and legal immigration that can only be debated after the border is secure. That combination resonates with Americans. Republicans need to be strongly proactive on legal immigration — it is vital to include that word in all campaigns because Americans are sympathetic to immigration conceptually, but not to illegal immigration.

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Naturally, Democrats may help Republicans with that. Democrat-connected, well-funded professional protest organizations are ginned up for more outrage campaigns and protests over splitting up children and parents at the border, tugging at American heartstrings to feed their own raging hatred of President Trump.

Verbally or physically threatening and attacking Sarah Huckabee Sanders, DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi in recent days is exactly the how the reactionary Left pushes voters into the Trump/Republican camp. Their antics are a turn-off to mainstream voters, even if those voters are unaware that Obama did the same thing.

A Harvard Harris Poll in January found that even when a government shutdown was looming — and government shutdowns are unpopular — Americans supported Trump’s three main positions for a border wall: strict limits to the chain of family migration; an end to the nonsensical Diversity Visa Lottery program; and a dramatic cut by almost two-thirds to legal immigration from 1.3 million currently to 500,000.

A more recent Gallup poll found that about 80 percent of Republicans remain “somewhat dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” with current legal immigration levels, and a surprising one in four Democrats do, also.

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If Americans feel that strongly about legal immigration, it is not hard to see their general animosity toward illegal immigration. It’s just that Americans are big-hearted and when they see people struggling, and families separated and general hardship, they want to mitigate that situation. It’s an excellent and fairly unique national instinct. But they overall think we have been on the wrong immigration track for a long time.

Here are the big picture policies that are winners for Republicans in November:

➜ Secure the border so that we can compassionately handle the small number of families coming with legitimate asylum issues;

➜ End chain migration for families that opens the door for virtually limitless legal immigration based on initial illegal immigration;

➜ End the Diversity Immigrant Visa Lottery program where immigration applicants are chosen at random to jump to the front of the line to come to America — regardless of the merits of their need or what they bring to the country.

And these are the immigration issues on which Republicans can successfully put Democrats on the defensive:

➜ Sanctuary cities

➜ Drivers licenses for illegal aliens

➜ In-state tuition for illegal aliens

➜ Voter ID based only on drivers licenses

➜ Opposition to English only

All Republicans really need to do is remain (or become) strong on legal immigration and border enforcement issues and allow Democrats to turn off voters.

Rod Thomson is an author, former journalist and current TV talking head, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act. Rod is co-host of Right Talk America With Julio and Rod on the Salem Radio Network.


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How Republicans Win Back The Black Vote

By Frances Rice

The perennial question posed during every election season is: How can Republicans win back the black vote? As a retired Army lieutenant colonel and chairman of the National Black Republican Association, I can tell you there are clear steps to take.

But before we can get to solving the problem, it is necessary to first understand the root cause.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Republican Party has never turned its back on black Americans. It continuously conducts black voter engagement, as is done for all identifiable groups, including Hispanics, rural Americans, the middle-class in “fly-over country,” young voters and women.

The root cause of the refusal of most black Americans to vote for Republicans rests squarely with the Democratic Party establishment (which includes the media and much of the education structure) that has convinced most blacks that the Republican Party is a racist party. Every election cycle, Democrats go into black communities and preach hatred against Republicans and get blacks to cast a protest vote against Republicans — not a vote for Democrats.

This has been overtly detrimental to blacks. To read details about how the race-mongering by Democrats harms blacks, see Walter E. Williams’ “The True Black Tragedy.” See also “Why the Left Can’t Let Go of Racism” by Shelby Steele.

Even though only about 25% of black Americans live in urban communities targeted by Democrats, the false narrative that Republicans are racist is broadcast to the rest of the country by the liberal press that functions as the propaganda arm of the Democratic Party.

Progress is being made with the educational campaign to set the civil rights record straight and recapture the rich civil rights legacy of the Republican Party, which is the mission of the National Black Republican Association (NBRA).

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The Republican Party of Florida is at the forefront of this educational campaign and is the home state for the NBRA that was founded in 2005 in the West Palm Beach headquarters of Christopher Ruddy, CEO of Newsmax Media, at the behest of former Republican Party of Palm Beach County Chairman Sid Dinerstein.

When Democrats and the media are confronted with the strong Republican voting record for blacks, the fiction created to explain it is that everyone switched parties in the 1970s, just changed hats. That did not happen.

It does not pass the common sense test to believe that the parties switched sides after: Republicans fought the Civil War to end slavery; amended the Constitution to grant blacks freedom (13th Amendment), citizenship (14th Amendment) and the right to vote (15th Amendment); and championed every piece of civil rights legislation from the 1860’s to the 1960’s, including voting in higher percentages for the landmark 1964 Civil Rights Act than did Democrats. For an extensive, fact-filled history of civil rights and where Republicans and Democrats stood, read Kevin D Williamson’s “The Parties Did Not Switch Sides – Update: The Republican Party is The Party of Civil Rights.”

When addressing economic issues with black voters, it is essential that Republican leaders recognize that the party’s conservative message of low taxes, smaller government and prosperity through free enterprise does not resonate with the average black voter.

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Why?

First, a far higher percentage of black Americans are employed by the government than other races or ethnicities. So when they hear that Republicans want to reduce taxes and the size of government, they hear that Republicans want to take away their jobs. And of course, the media is quick to spread that word.

Second, according to a report “The State of Working America,” among racial and ethnic groups, black Americans had the highest poverty rate, 27.4 percent, followed by Hispanics at 26.6 percent and whites at 9.9 percent. Therefore, when poor blacks hear that Republicans want to reduce taxes and the size of government, they hear that Republicans want to take away their welfare checks.

Notably, according to a Heritage Foundation report, since the War on Poverty began under President Lyndon Johnson, welfare spending has exploded to sixteen times its original size and the cost has risen to a staggering $22 trillion — three times more than what the government has spent on all wars in American history.

That report finds that massive welfare spending has not led to a drop in the poverty rate. Another finding is how misleading it is to think that Americans are not better off today. Noted is the fact that a household receiving $50,000 in welfare benefits would still be classified as poor, if its pre-welfare income fell below the poverty line. Statistics show that 80 percent of America’s poor households have air conditioning, two-thirds have cable or satellite television, half have a personal computer and 43 percent have access to the internet. Virtually all have smartphones.

Given the above information, it can be concluded that a winning message for Republicans to deliver to black Americans, as well as all Americans, is being very explicit about how tax cuts and deregulation result in more jobs and higher wages for everyone. Under the Trump Administration, these actions have resulted in historic low black unemployment and rising wages.

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Republican leaders would also do well to emphasize the prison reform, school choice programs and the faith-based initiative implemented by President Donald J. Trump — all issues that do resonate with black voters.

Worth noting is that, according to the most recent U.S census data, there are nearly 325 million people in the United States, and the voting age population exceeds 235.2 million, with African Americans comprising 12.5 percent. Since it is estimated that about 10 percent of blacks align with the Republican Party, that means that there are about 2.9 million Black Republicans. That’s not a miniscule amount. But it can be a lot more.

The issues of why tax cuts help blacks, along with prison reform, school choice and faith-based programs need to be pointed out to black voters to counter the false narratives coming from the Democrat media establishment.

Frances Rice is a lawyer, a retired Army lieutenant colonel and chairman of the National Black Republican Association. She was honored as one of America’s Top 100 Black Business and Professional Women by Dollars and Sense magazine. She may be contacted at: www.nbra.info

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Why Democrats Aren’t Running Against “Evil” Tax Cuts

Rod Thomson

Back in December and January, Democrats and their fellow-travelers in the media were ebullient over the idea of running against the “tax cuts for the wealthiest 1 percent” tax reform package Congress had passed on a straight party-line vote, and President Trump subsequently signed into law.

It’s worth a quick and entertaining look back at the now commonplace hysterical response from the American Left (Democrat/Media/Culture/Education establishment), this time at basic tax cuts.

House Democratic leader, Nancy Pelosi, a constant well-spring of poppycock, called the legislation “the end of the world” and “the worst bill in the history of the United States Congress.” (Ahem…Fugitive Slave Act?) She predicted the tax cut would create “a permanent plutocracy in our country that does violence to the vision of our Founders.” California Gov. Jerry Brown called tax cuts “evil in the extreme.”

The Washington Post felt compelled to run a column predicting the Great Depression II, including unemployment at 25 percent. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said the bill’s health provisions would kill 10,000 people annually. And economic historian Bruce Bartlett said that tax cuts are “akin to rape.”

Veteran Atlantic political reporter Ron Brownstein argued that “President Trump and congressional Republicans have just taken the same leap of faith that Democrats did when they passed the Affordable Care Act.” The Huffington Post anxiously ran a story headlined “ObamaCare Plagued Democrats In 2010. The GOP Just Voted For A Bill Even Less Popular.”

And what’s a media nonsense roundup without Paul Krugman, who wrote a column, “Republicans’ Tax Lies Show the Rot Spreads Wide and Runs Deep.”

Well, something was running wide and deep.

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But now that the big blue wave midterms are approaching, Democrats actually are not running against the end of the world, against 25 percent unemployment, against rot, against evil. You’d think those would be winning issues with the American people. Perhaps the end-of-the-world bombast was just empty drivel like so much that has been upchucked into the media since November 2016.

Remember how Republicans ran loud and hard (and for some, lied) about repealing Obamacare as soon as they had the chance. It was proving unpopular and hitting Americans negatively. We are seeing an almost complete absence of that now in both Democratic primaries, and where the general elections are set, in regards to the tax reform package that was the end of the world.

It’s not just by observation we are seeing this step away from tax cut repeal. Democratic leadership is admitting it. Washington Post political reporter David Weigel asked Democratic leaders about it at their recent strategy retreat, and tweeted their response:

“Asked Dems at retreat presser if they’ll run in 2018 on repealing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Answer: Not really. (They’ll “restore balance.”) Weigel tweeted the full text of his questions and their answers. By balance, they presumably and without elucidation, mean balancing the budget, which they did such a bangup job of doing when they were in control.

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Why the big flip for Democrats? It’s more than the dawning realization that the slogan, “Vote for me and I’ll raise your taxes!” is probably not going to resonate with voters.

First, there are the actual facts involved with the tax reform package. The politically liberal Tax Policy Center ran the numbers and figured the tax cuts would benefit 80 percent of American families, while raising taxes for just 5 percent. Those tax hikes would fall disproportionately on the wealthiest 1 percent. The average family would save $1,610.

More facts. The Congressional Budget Office has sharply increased its forecast for GDP growth in 2018 from 2 percent to robust 3.3 percent as a direct result of the tax cuts. The CBO predicts GDP growth next year at 2.4%, up from the expected 1.5% before the tax cuts. Further, the CBO says that this level of growth in the economy could eliminate most of the so-called tax-cut deficit that Democrats are suddenly so concerned about. Unfortunately but to no one’s shock, the media largely ignored that report.

Second, the tax cut package still remains popular. The “Republican” or “GOP” tax cuts, not so much. Recent polls showing a decline in support for the GOP tax cuts have elated Democrats and the media. But they’re quite misleading. The tax cuts themselves, broken down by almost every element within the bill, are overwhelmingly popular.

Investors Business Daily broke those down here. Americans’ support is absurdly high for most elements of the tax cuts. But most polls label the tax cuts as Republican or GOP, and when that happens, the support drops significantly.

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A couple of things are at work here. One is the ongoing demonization of Republicans in the media. This has been a long-running train. The other is the conflation of budget deficit with the tax cuts. This of course has two elements, one of which is continued runaway spending, which congressional Republicans caved on like they always do. (Remember, they are caving to Democrats who actively pursue the runaway spending.) Saying that the taxes alone caused the projected $1.5 trillion deficit — over 10 years, because that is the only way to make it look bad — ignores half of the equation but clearly can influence news consumers.

Third, an April Gallup Poll found that Americans think the tax code is more fair today than it was before the GOP tax cuts took effect. Last year, 51 percent of Americans said middle income families pay too much income taxes. That is now down to 42%. And amazingly, given the media coverage, 26 percent say upper-income families pay their fair share, up slightly from 24 percent last year. And the big corporate fat cat giveaway? Well, 24 percent now say that corporations pay their fair share, up sharply from 19% a year ago when corporate tax rates were much higher.

It’s hard to run on a lie when the truth keeps showing up in bi-weekly dollars in the wallet, when you can see how strong the economy around you is. High GDP growth is tangible, just like anemic GDP growth was under Obama.

Americans realize that the tax reform package was a net positive for their pocketbooks, for the economy, for jobs and for the deficit — the absolute opposite of how they rightly viewed Obamacare. That Democrats aren’t clawing to run against it means they still have a modicum of political sense left.

Rod Thomson is an author, TV talking head and former journalist, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act. Rod is co-host of Right Talk America With Julio and Rod on the Salem Radio Network.

 

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Black Leaders Put Trump Hatred Ahead Of Black Lives

Rod Thomson

Once again, it appears that many black leaders — at least those safely ensconced in wealth and fame — prioritize racial identity politics and virulent Trump hatred over actual black lives. This hurts the country, but fundamentally damages black Americans.

That’s a tough charge. But how else to read the most recent example other than maintaining the image of President Trump as a racist is more important than tackling some of the black community’s most intractable problems? If the President starts meeting with a bunch of blacks, including non-conservative blacks, to talk about prison reform of all things, the media will have a much harder time continuing to cast him as racist. And if he is not a racist, then why should blacks vote against him considering his accomplishments have measurably improved their standard of living?

So we encounter the sad situation where mega-rich rapper and producer Jay-Z persuaded rapper Meek Mill to dump a meeting with Trump because it might make Trump look like a real person, a real non-racist person. The president had invited Mill because the rapper, recently released from prison, has a unique take on what reforms within the prison system could benefit blacks reintegrating into society. Further, New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft befriended Mill after visiting him in prison. Kraft is a big Trump supporter (another rich, white racist?) and is the likely conduit for Trump inviting Mill.

Jay-Z is that paragon of wisdom and insight who, along with Black Panther-promoting wife Beyonce, yucks it up with the brutal dictators in Cuba while Cubans (including black Cubans) are imprisoned for political views or impoverished because they don’t toe the dictatorial line. Mill listened to the wrong friend.

It’s too bad. He walked away from a one-time opportunity to influence national policy on prison reform by listening to the foolish counsel of Jay-Z. (The cynic might suggest watching to see if Mill now comes out with an album on Jay-Z’s label.)

Trump sought to meet with black leaders, both conservative and liberal, so they could find some type of broad consensus on what might need to be done with criminal justice reform. That is exactly the type of leadership that would have been rightly lauded if President Obama had ever tried it. But he didn’t. He kept the incarceration issue and racial division alive and stoked and ruled by pure partisanship. Republicans in Washington will tell you there was no serious reaching across the aisle during Obama’s eight years.

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Now, it’s not at all clear that criminal justice reform is the primary solution. The evidence strongly points to the dramatic decline of the family and the church. But Trump does think there should be reform and in this aligns himself with Black Lives Matter, Jay-Z, Van Jones and others on the left. Unfortunately, Meek Mills followed the Jay-Z and BLM prescription of anti-Trump before pro-black.

Doubtful Mill will get a second chance. A Republican president and a Republican Congress open to criminal justice reform was the best opportunity to get something done.

Indeed, a start is already on the table with the U.S House of Representatives expected to vote within a week on a Trump-backed bill going after some prison reforms. The bill provides $50 million of funding for prisons to implement job training and education in an effort to reduce recidivism. Naturally, some have criticized the bill as not going far enough. But it’s certainly a start and perhaps with more input from someone like Meek Mill could have offered effective refinements.

Trump is really onboard: “For this effort, we are not just absolving prisoners of their central role in their own rehabilitation; there is no substitute for personal accountability and there is no tolerance for those who take advantage of society’s generosity to prey upon the innocent,” Trump said. “However, if we want more prisoners to take charge of their own lives then we should work to give them the tools to stand on their own two feet.”

This was the opportunity Mill walked away from. Not all did. Hardened leftist Obama acolyte and CNN personality Van Jones, Jr. attended the meeting and spoke very positively about it afterward.

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But Mill scuttled it. It’s all too easy to believe that Democrats in Congress would do the same because they, like Jay-Z and others, are more interested in beating Trump and winning races in November than seeking actual solutions to the criminality plaguing the black community. Sadly, they have been for a long time.

This all is why Kanye West matters. He just flat out said he’s going to do what he wants to do, he’s going to be defined as an individual before a racial group. He was pilloried by Jay-Z, John Legend, Maxine Waters and the rest of the blackthink crowd, but stuck to it. Apparently Meek Mill is no Kanye West.

Rod Thomson is an author, TV talking head and former journalist, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act. Rod is co-host of Right Talk America With Julio and Rod on the Salem Radio Network.


Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever, and a lot of sources are not trustworthy. Whatfinger.com  is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time from good sources.


 

Categories
Democrats Elections Korea Republicans Trump Truth

7 Reasons Why The Midterm Elections May NOT Be A Blue Wave

Rod Thomson

This is not a rose-colored view. The midterm elections are going to be dicey for Republicans in the House. Virtually all of modern American history, regardless of party i power, demonstrates this. Yes, the GOP could definitely lose the House.

First, here are the numbers suggesting GOP vulnerability in the House. In 16 out of 18 post-WWII midterms, the president’s party has lost House seats. Importantly, the average loss for the president’s party is 25 House seats. The Republicans currently have a 23-seat majority.

However, there is a counter case to the media narrative that muddies the electoral waters in a way not normally seen. This is pure political analysis, and things could change. Certainly some of the recent election losses are serious red flags.

First a quick look at the two exceptions to the postwar rule on midterm elections. In 1998 under President Clinton, Democrats picked up five seats. That was a second term president and a booming economy — which is relevant based on the case below. The other exception was in 2002 under President Bush, when Republicans picked up six seats in the House.

Both of those presidents had very high approval ratings; 66 percent for Clinton in a very strong economy and 63 percent for Bush, but we were a nation at war, just a year after the 9-11 attacks and Americans rally behind the president during times of war. In this Gallup chart, you can see how the midterm elections track generally with the president’s approval rating. President Trump’s Gallup approval rating is 39 percent. Reagan’s was 42 percent during his first midterm, and the GOP lost 28 seats.

So just by the numbers, it looks pretty bad for Republicans. And it may be. But numbers are usually driven by underlying factors — which is why Clinton in 1998 and Bush in 2002 bucked the overarching trend.

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So let’s look at some of those underlying issues. There are at least seven fairly major areas affecting Americans that should be favorable for the President in power in a midterm election. Here they are in probable order of importance in November.

1) The Economy. Whether measured by GDP growth or job growth or unemployment rates, the American economy is perhaps the strongest it has been this century. This is a pocketbook issue and has always electorally benefitted the party in power. (Clinton in 1998.)

2) Tax Cuts. The tax reform package is putting more money in people’s pockets. It’s as if the GOP Congress and President Trump gave Americans a pay raise. This also is a very positive pocketbook issue. (Bush in 2002, from the 2001 tax cuts and, as stated, the 9-11 attacks.)

3) Obamacare rollbacks. More freedom for millions of Americans who will not be penalized for not buying a product that their betters in Washington were forcing them to buy. Again, a positive pocketbook issue, in addition to a liberty issue.

4) Deregulation. This has been going on steadily through the White House, freeing American corporations to be more competitive and provide more affordable products and services for Americans. This is the hidden gem because it is largely unreported, but it helps tens of thousands of companies and their employees, and will continue to benefit the economy.

5) Jobs and Manufacturing Jobs. President Obama said of declining manufacturing jobs that those are gone and they’re never coming back. Under Trump, American companies have added 222,000 manufacturing jobs in the past 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Obama was wrong, because Democrats have the wrong policies. This can matter in blue collar purple districts.

6) North Korea. For the first time, North Korea’s psycho leader is talking seriously to South Korea and reached out to meet with an American president. This may still tank given the brutal regime’s history, but just getting this far without giving in to extortion as previous administrations did is an accomplishment. It’s not a big electoral needle-mover, but it doesn’t hurt. Improving Trump’s approval rating could translate into House wins.

7) Hammering Putin and Russia. Despite all the Trump-Russia collusion nonsense, for which there is still no evidence at all, Trump has been considerably harder on Russia than Obama, who openly colluded with Russia during his 2012 re-election campaign. He’s bombed Russian allies, extended military cooperation with our Eastern European allies facing Russia and has slapped sanctions on Russia for meddling in 2016.

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As demonstrated, several of these mitigating factors have played a role in the two midterm exceptions. They will play a role in this year’s also. Whether they are enough to offset the momentum and excitement of Democrat wins in 2017 and the most recent in Pennsylvania, only time will tell.

The wild card remains, of course, President Trump — his mannerisms that turn off a percentage of Americans who otherwise agree with this policies, if they are aware of them — and whether he will modify those mannerisms. Based on the underlying attitude of people thinking the nation is going in the right direction, it is probably Trump’s mannerisms and the daily drumbeat of negativity in the media that is driving down his approvals.

The media definitely won’t change. Trump probably won’t change them much. However, he already has dialed back the little side-fighting tweet wars with celebrities, athletes and other knuckleheads.

One last wild card is the investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. If Mueller finds real corruption in the Trump campaign, then a blue wave is assured. But that is seemingly not going to happen. If Mueller finds nothing more on Trump and Russia, or even pivots toward Clinton and the Democrats, that could blunt a lot of Democrat momentum.

Either way, it seems clear that a blue wave is not assured at this point — Democrat fundraising letters and media reports notwithstanding.

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Rod Thomson is an author, TV talking head and former journalist, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act. Rod is co-host of Right Talk America With Julio and Rod on the Salem Radio Network.


Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever, and a lot of sources are not trustworthy. Whatfinger.com  is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time from good sources.


 

Categories
Conservatism Democrats Republicans Taxes Truth

Conservative, Pro-American Policies Are Winning

Rod Thomson

President Trump’s approval ratings are at their highest level ever, and Republicans have totally erased the 15-point lead in the generic congressional ballot Democrats held just two months ago.

This is telling on a couple of levels, and I hope Republicans are paying attention. Democrats may continue on their merry intersectional way.

First, polls taken on immediate issues are almost always driven by the media coverage. So the tax reform that passed in December was “deeply unpopular” with Americans. All the polls showed it. But what they really showed was how the media was covering the tax package — big tax cuts for the rich and corporations, regular Americans losing deductions — a big giveaway to “others.”

Of course that’s not what it was. That was a total misrepresentation driven by Democrats’ talking points. Americans are now seeing what the tax reform package is actually doing — real news as opposed to you-know-what news — and they are liking what they see. It’s not surprising, as many middle income Americans are taking home a couple thousand dollars more per year — what House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi infamously called crumbs in her ever so out-of-touch way.

Priorities USA, the most influential Democratic super PAC, recently released a memo noting the rise in popularity of the tax law. It urged Democrats to message more consistently against the tax law by taking the big picture class warfare tac of the rich getting more tax money and the irresponsibility of increasing the national debt — a laughably untenable position for people who supported President Obama’s doubling the national debt in just eight years.

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“It’s tougher to win when people are seeing more money,” said Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth, of Kentucky, the ranking minority member on the House Budget Committee. “That’s big money for a lot of people.”

Well, yes. So why are Democrats fighting that? They are literally saying the government should have that money — not working, middle-income Americans. Totally out of touch.

But good for Republicans and Trump.

The second lesson is that conservative issues are winners with the American people. Republicans must stop listening to the mainstream media, and listen to the American people. This is a lesson that apparently requires relearning every few years. The problem is that they are too influenced by the cultural elites. But the national media and celebrity class are as out of touch with Americans as the Democratic leadership.

But despite the overwhelming, negative public onslaught by the media and celebrities, the American people eventually see through the cultural nonsense to the real issue. But this is only beneficial when Republicans actually pursue and implement conservative policies with a pro-American attitude.

And the policies of President Trump and the GOP Congress have been overwhelmingly conservative (with the exception of the two-year spending agreement, in part because of the requirement for 60 votes and in part because of desire for re-election first.)

So Trump has been deeply unpopular in his first year, but of course, given the hysterically negative onslaught of media coverage, that is not too surprising. However, his approval ratings have been rising steadily since the tax reform package and the strengthening economy. In fact, his approvals are now equal or better than President Obama’s at the same time in his presidency at 48 percent approval, according to the most recent Rasmussen tracking poll.

What’s truly shocking is that Trump has received close to 90 percent negative media reporting in his first year and Obama had about 20 percent negative media coverage. Again, the American people eventually see through the smokescreen of old media coverage to the actual policies and their effectiveness. And conservative policies are effective and popular.

And the GOP has caught and maybe passed Democrats in the generic congressional ballot polls. Politico reports:

“Republicans have erased the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot in a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that, for the first time since April, also shows President Donald Trump’s approval rating equaling the percentage of voters who disapprove of his job performance.

Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate. Nearly a quarter of voters, 23 percent, are undecided.”

What has changed? Certainly not the media reporting.

Largely, it has been the tax reform package, ongoing deregulation helping the broad economy, a breakthrough in the logjam blocking originalist judges, winning the government shutdown issues by not caving in and standing firm on building the wall and ending chain migration. There may also be a side help as more and more revelations show that there isn’t much to the whole Trump-Russia story, but there may be something to the FBI-DNC-Clinton-Russia story.

The bottom line remains the bottom line. If Trump and Republicans will stick to conservative principles, voice them confidently and expose liberal nonsense, they will win.

Rod Thomson is an author, TV talking head and former journalist, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act. Rod is co-host of Right Talk America With Julio and Rod on the Salem Radio Network.


Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever, and a lot of sources are not trustworthy. Whatfinger.com  is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time from good sources.


 

Categories
Democrats Elections Republicans

Five Lessons From The GOP Special Election Loss In Florida

Rod Thomson

Republicans lost a seat big in the Florida Legislature Tuesday that carries ridiculously outsized implications — because everything since November 2016 is DefCon 1 Armageddon for Democrats.

In this era of The Woman and #MeToo, the race pitted a female Democrat against a male Republican in a fairly even district. Republican James Buchanan, son of Congressman Vern Buchanan lost to liberal Democrat lawyer Margaret Good. The House District covers northern Sarasota County, including the Democrat-dominated City of Sarasota, and has flipped between Republican and Democrat over the years. Most recently it was held by a Republican who chose to resign half-way through her two-year term, setting up this election.

The Florida Legislature boasts a veto-proof Republican majority and a Republican governor, so this race had no meaningful impact on Tallahassee politics or state governance. It was viewed by desperate Democrats nationally the opportunity to prove a mid-term “wave” coming.

So Democrats, mostly from outside Florida, poured well north of $1 million into the Democrat’s campaign for a seat that will be up for election again in just nine months. Further, former Vice President Joe Biden made robocalls for the Democrat, who raised $541,000 in her campaign, but more than $500,000 more was spent on PACs. Most of this money was from around the country, particularly California.

At the end of the day, with record turnout and gaining most of the No Party Affiliation votes and a small percentage of Republican crossovers, the Democrat won by a substantial 8 percentage points.

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This is not a panic moment. But it is one to take seriously and learn from.

Here are five lessons Republicans should take from this loss.

1. Everything is nationalized for Democrats. Therefore Republicans need to continue to get solid, conservative wins in Washington, such as the tax reform package, originalist federal judge appointments and immigration. And President Trump needs to continue leading in the fashion of his home-run State of the Union address. Holding the House, and maybe several state houses, may depend on it

→ 2. This race is not repeatable in November. And this is true with some other special elections recently. Because the entire U.S. House is up for election, one-third of the U.S. Senate and literally thousands of officeholders at the state and local levels. Leading national Democrats cannot make robocalls for each of these and Democrats will not be able to spend enormously out-sized amounts on every race.

→ 3. Maintain the deregulation train. Trump and Republicans need to continue the de-regulation that has been ongoing and that started helping the economy in 2017. A strong economy where American voters feel prosperous and secure can go a long way toward blunting the traditional knockdown of the party in power during a midterm election.

→ 4. The woman thing is real. Numbers don’t lie. The Florida House race saw the highest percentage ever in a special election of women from both parties voting. And it is clear analyzing the numbers that most of the independent women voters and too high a percentage of the Republican women voters filled in the oval for the female Democrat.

→ 5. The scandal wildcard. The growing Obama-FBI-DOJ scandal and diminishing Trump-Russia collusion scandal remain a wildcard. While the public evidence shows the shift in the balance of evidence now pointing at the Obama-Clinton camp, we don’t know what Special Counsel Robert Mueller will do. If he finds more indictments within the Trump camp to hand down in late summer or early fall, that could have a huge impact on the investigation. If Trump appoints a Special Counsel to investigate the Obama-FBI-DOJ scandal, it could have an opposite impact. Or not. Too much unknown and therefore a wildcard.

What is for certain is that the GOP better not take anything for granted in November. Currently improving poll numbers can turn around any time.

Rod Thomson is an author, TV talking head and former journalist, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act.


Today’s news moves at a faster pace than ever, and a lot of sources are not trustworthy. Whatfinger.com  is my go-to source for keeping up with all the latest events in real time from good sources.


 

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