If there is a silver lining in the tragic farce wrought on the nation by the Democratic Party in the Judge Brett Kavanaugh nomination hearings it is this: Regular Americans are recoiling at the shocking spectacle and Democrat support is plummeting.
Every new poll coming out is uniformly showing middle Americans fleeing from the Democrats while a once-mildly apathetic Republican Party has been ginned up to energetic levels equal to the Democratic base.
Further trouble for the much-hyped blue wave is that black voters are trending against Democrats, participating in the #walkaway movement and viewing the Kavanaugh moment very differently from white Democrats. Given the reliance of the Democratic Party on the monolithic black vote, this portends disaster for blue — but possible salvation for the nation.
An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released last week found that the enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans has been erased. The poll asked registered members of each party if they believe the election is “very important.” The gap was running 10-15 points since mid-summer in favor of Democrats. Now it is at 2 points, well within the margin of error, as GOP enthusiasm increased 12 points.
The most recent IBD/TIPP poll also found that the Democrats’ 11-point advantage in the generic ballot was essentially gone. It’s now down to 2 points. The poll also found that President Trump gained four points in his approval rating, and 7 points in the Presidential Leadership Index. It’s an improvement at least in part by way of contrast with the horrible sight of the Democratic left.
The newest Quinnipiac poll, which leans left, found that the Democratic generic congressional ballot advantage has been cut in half. And since mid-September, the Real Clear Politics average of polls showed Trump’s approval climbing more than three points.
And buried in a Quinnipiac poll are some numbers that should rock Democrats back on their heals: Two weeks ago, white women were favoring Democrats on a generic congressional ballot by 13 points. One week later it was down to five points. In the latest poll, it is at one point. These are the vaunted suburban female voters that Democrats having been targeting because of their supposed discomfort with Trump. But it turns out they have sons and husbands and watching what happened to Brett Kavanaugh has not sat well.
Individual race polls are also tracking strongly the same direction.
In the Missouri Senate race, Republican Josh Hawley now leads incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill — with virtually all of the movement coming in reaction to the Kavanaugh hearings. In North Dakota, Republican Kevin Cramer now has a huge lead over Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in two polls — 10 percent and 12 percent. In Indiana, Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly has a one point lead over Republican Mike Braun. It was six points two weeks ago. (This race includes a Libertarian, which is often a spoiler for Republicans.)
A recent YouGov poll showed Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn with an eight point lead over former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen for the open Tennessee seat. This seat was targeted by the Democrats as a pickup possibility.
Republican pollster Chris Wilson says she’s seen Republican polling gains in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota and Texas — just in one week, according to the McClatchy news service.
Meanwhile, the National Republican Congressional Committee reported late last week that its small-dollar donations ballooned 175% over the previous week — again, largely based on the Kavanaugh hearings. This means more than just the money increase, it goes directly to the rising GOP voter enthusiasm in the most tangible way.
And finally, what may or may not be being captured is the trend by black voters. Blacks have been warming up to Trump slowly but steadily despite the avalanche of daily racist bromides by the Democrat media establishment.
Trump’s approval rating among black voters in the latest Rasmussen Poll, which leans right, is 35 percent. It was 23 percent at the same time last year, and 17 percent when Trump was elected. An NAACP poll shows a 21 percent level of support among blacks for Trump, compared to seven percent in November 2016. These show real and solid movement.
It turns out that blacks may have watched the #IBelieveHer affair in an entirely different light from other Democrat voters — the light of Emmett Till and a legacy of black men being lynched based solely on the word of a white woman. FYI, all by Democrats.
The surge at every level is apparent. And with only one month until the election, this momentum shift could be very real by the end of the day Nov. 8.
Rod Thomson is an author, TV talking head and former journalist, and is Founder of The Revolutionary Act. Rod is co-host of Right Talk America With Julio and Rod on the Salem Radio Network.
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